'Back of the Envelope' Calculations

Indian GDP Estimates Regressed (back of the envelope calculations)

Estimated for the next 2-5 years horizon

India’s GDP’s Growth Estimate:

= 7.5 % 

+ .5 (Direct Tax Code) 

+ .5 (GST Implementation) 

+ .5 (Deregulation of Oil)

Explanation

Indian GDP (an independent variable) can be estimated by a multiple regression model based on three dependent variables – Direct Tax Code, GST Implementation and Deregulation of Oil. The intercept is taken to be 7.5 (present GDP growth rate under normal conditions), slope is estimated to be .05 for all three dependent variable is a very general manner (just to highlight the level of significance the independent variable have on the dependent variable - GDP growth rate).

Parameters of Independent Variables 

(defined – remember, its back of the envelope calculation – without any sound research to support the hypothesis)

Direct Tax Code              
= 1 (If Implemented)
                                      
= 0 (If Not Implemented)
                                        
= -1 (If corruption index increases)

GST Implementation       
= 1 (If Implemented)

                                        
= 0 (If not implemented)

                                        
= -1 (If fiscal consolidation not initiated in the next one year)

Deregulation of oil            
= 1 (If recommendations accepted)

                                        
= -1 (If not accepted, in the next one year)

                                        
= -2 (If oil prices cross USD 100/ per barrel)

Maoists Violence: Bowl a "Doosra" to them

Maoists Violence and the way forward for Center:

1. Come up with an amnesty scheme for Maoists, giving all those who are ready to surrender arms, an assurance of jobs with a guaranteed fixed monthly income. Close all cases against them and welcome them in the mainstream those who are ready to surrender.

2. Adopt all those villages who are ready to cooperate and take a stand against Maoists in the affected areas. Develop basic infrastructure like medical, education and entertainment facility in these villages and provide them adequate security.

3. Launch a major offensive against the extremists backed in full force by armed forces. Declare Maoists movement as terrorism and come up with a anti terror legislation against these terror groups.

4. Educate and create awareness among masses about all those stake holders who are cooperating and advancing the cause of Maoism in India, both actively and passively. The role of state governments and political parties with Maoists links to be brought in public notice.

5. Set up an independent ministry at the center to deal with Internal Security of the country including coordination among state police and different intelligence agencies.

"Ship them Abroad"

Ships when not in usable state are ‘shipped’ to third world countries for decommissioning and de bundling and sold off as scrap. Imagine the pain on the economic and environmental balance sheets of countries if decommissioning old and unusable ships is not allowed; rather you are forced to spend heavily on them to keep them in working condition.

Something akin in happening with the handling of elderly and their pensions in the west. Greece is stretching the working age of potential retirees as it would not be able to fund current level of retirement benefits. America is increasingly concerned about the baby boomers entering the retirement age and UK and parts of Euro zone are hard pressed and most state pension plans are underfunded.

Is there is a way out? Well if we take a leaf from the ship building and its related ‘decommissioning’ industry, it makes absolute sense to carry out the ‘decommissioning’ of elderly ‘offshore’ (with all due respect). 

Retirees can be shipped to cheaper countries for medical treatments and even for permanent settlement (in cases which require permanent and continuing medical supervision and care). Medical Tourism is not too bad an idea and countries like Singapore, India and Chile have a competitive advantage in providing cheaper and sophisticated ‘overhauling services’ for the elderly. It’s about time the west harness this competitive advantage of emerging economies to reduce their “Defined Benefit” retirement plan expenditure. Clearly it might cost west some medical jobs, but more money in the hands of emerging economies will spike demand for imported goods from west (particularly technology and sophistical equipments including medical and aeronautical etc). The demand for technology and sophistical goods will create jobs in these industries (in the west), thus there will be a structural shift in some jobs from medical to other industries and the world economy will be better off.

All those ‘baby boomers’; get ready to be ‘shipped’ overseas. 

(Note: Equating medical tourism for elderly with off shoring is a satire on American Ideology of 'off shoring' anything and everything that saves cost.)